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四川盆地中部古隆起震旦系气藏产量增长趋势预测
Prediction on the production increase trend of Sinian gas reservoirs in the palaeohigh, central Sichuan Basin
余 果 李海涛 陈艳茹 郑 姝 刘 鑫
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作者单位:中国石油西南油气田公司勘探开发研究院
中文关键字:四川盆地中部 古隆起 震旦系 峰值预测理论 天然气产量预测 Hubbert 模型 Gauss 模型
英文关键字:Central Sichuan Basin; Palaeohigh; Sinian; Peak prediction theory; Gas production prediction; Hubbert model; Gauss model
中文摘要:    科学预测油气产量变化趋势对制定能源开采计划及调整发展战略具有重要意义。四川盆地中部古隆起震旦系气藏勘探开发潜力巨大,目前已成为四川盆地继磨溪地区下寒武统龙王庙组气藏后又一重要上产领域,成为盆地常规天然气产量增长的主体和天然气上游业务效益贡献的关键,合理的产量规模预测对实现其高质量开发意义重大。因此,从四川盆地中部古隆起震旦系气藏天然气资源地质与开发特点出发,将最终可采储量作为影响产量增长趋势的边界条件,引入到峰值预测产量增长趋势理论的Hubbert 与Gauss 两种非线性时间序列峰值预测模型中,开展不同探明率条件下的四川盆地中部古隆起震旦系气藏产量预测研究,进一步明确未来勘探开发潜力。模型预测结果表明: ① 2 种预测模型对四川盆地中部古隆起震旦系气藏产量发展趋势都有着较乐观的预测结果,预测结果较为接近;②产量预测结果表明,Gauss 模型的预测结果相关性更高;③四川盆地中部古隆起震旦系气藏将在未来20 年继续保持产量快速增长趋势,将于2036 年达到(140 ~ 285)×108 m3/a 峰值产量,并在2032—2040 年处于相对稳产期,稳产阶段结束时最终可采储量采出程度将超过60%。
英文摘要:    A credible prediction on the petroleum production trend is significant to production programming and strategic adjustment. With great exploration and development potential, the Sinian gas reservoirs in the palaeohigh, central Sichuan Basin, have become another major domain of production increase following the Lower Cambrian Longwangmiao gas reservoirs in Moxi area, a great contributor to conventional gas production increase, and the benefit of upstream gas business in the basin. How to predict the gas production accurately is of great significance to high-quality development. So, starting from geologic and development features of Sinian gas resources in the palaeohigh, central Sichuan Basin, the ultimate recoverable reserves (URR) were taken as the boundary conditions of production trend to two models for predicting non-linear time-series peak, i.e. Hubbert and Gauss. Moreover, the Sinian gas production was predicted at different percentages of proved reserves to determine future exploration and development potential. Results shows that (1) two models yield similar optimistic results of the Sinian gas production trend in the study area, (2) Gauss results better correlate with actual production, and (3) a rapid increase in the Sinian gas production may be sustainable in the next 20 years. This production may reach the peak of (140-285)×108 m3/a by 2036 and then become stable from 2032 to 2040. The recoverable degree of URR will be above 60% at the end of stable production.
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国内统一连续出版物号:CN51-1159/TE |国内发行代码: |国际标准出版物号:ISSN1673-3177 |国际发行代码:
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