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基于多旋回模型预测四川盆地天然气储量增长趋势
Predicting the growth trend of natural-gas reserves in Sichuan Basin based on multi-cycle models
余 果1 李海涛1 陈艳茹1 战薇芸1 王晨宇2 张东明2
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作者单位:1、中国石油西南油气田公司勘探开发研究院 2、重庆大学资源与安全学院
中文关键字: 四川盆地 天然气储量 多旋回预测 Hubbert 模型 Gauss 模型 GM(1,2) 灰色
英文关键字:Sichuan Basin; Natural-gas reserves; Multi-cycle prediction; Hubbert model; Gauss model; GM (1, 2) grey
中文摘要:    开展四川盆地天然气储量增长趋势预测研究,进一步明确未来勘探潜力,论证天然气业务发展主要指标的合理性,为中长期战略目标制定提供科学依据。四川盆地天然气探明地质储量发现过程具有明显的多峰特征,利用GM(1,2) 灰色方法预测
储量曲线的多旋回模型参数变化规律,选用多旋回Hubbert 模型和多旋回Gauss 模型,以探明储量时间序列为基础,预测四川盆
地未来天然气探明储量趋势特征。预测结果表明:①天然气储量多旋回变化明显,GM(1,2) 灰色预测方法可用于预测多旋回参数
的变化规律,为储量增长趋势预测提供参数支撑;②多旋回Hubbert 和Gauss 模型预测得到的储量数据与实际年均探明储量数据
自相关系数分别为0.954 及0.912,多旋回Hubbert 模型预测结果与实际情况吻合度更高;③在相当长的时间内,盆地天然气勘探将具有广阔前景,天然气探明地质储量总体上呈现先快速上升后缓慢下降趋势,在2043 年将达到高峰,峰值储量为5 857×108 m3。
英文摘要:    Some studies on predicting the growth trend of natural-gas reserves in Sichuan Basin are of great significance to further
clarifying the future exploration potential, demonstrating the rationality of the main indicators of gas business development, and providing a scientific basis for setting medium- and long-term strategic objectives. Natural gas in this basin presents obvious multi-peak characteristics during the discovery process of proved geological reserves. So, the GM (1, 2) grey method was used to predict the change law of parameters in reserve curve of multi-cycle models, and both multi-cycle Hubbert and multi-cycle Gauss models were selected to predict the trend characteristics of future proved reserves based on the time series of proved reserves. Results show that (1) gas reserves emerge obvious multi-cycle characteristics, and GM (1, 2) grey prediction method can be used to predict the change law of multi-cycle parameters, so as to provide parameter support for predicting reserve growth trend; (2) the autocorrelation coefficients between some reserve data predicted by the multi-cycle Hubbert and Gauss models and other actual annual average proved reserve data are 0.954 and 0.912, respectively. The results from multi-cycle Hubbert model are in better agreement with true situation; and (3) for quite a long time in the future, gas exploration in Sichuan Basin will show a promising prospect, its proved geological reserves generally exhibit one trend of fast rise and then slow decline, reaching the peak of 5 857×108 m3 in 2043.
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国内统一连续出版物号:CN51-1159/TE |国内发行代码: |国际标准出版物号:ISSN1673-3177 |国际发行代码:
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